Pivot Point for Bitcoin?

Are we on the brink of a Q3 rally?

It’s the end of July 2022, the US Dollar has reached 20 year highs and the Fed has just hiked interest rates. So what could this mean for Bitcoin?

As I said in my last article, this time last year proved to be fairly pivotal for Bitcoin – it’s when the crypto OG finally broke out of it’s three month funk at the May-June 2021 eclipses and the bull market resumed,

Could we be about to see a break-out or relief rally, as looked possible around about now, care of Jupiter? Given that we are on the eve of the Leo New Moon, I thought it worth pausing to look at the astrology of this lunar phase to see if we could be building up momentum for a breakout to the upside.

Bullish Indicators: Leo New Moon

As I recently wrote, Q3 is definitely looking to be an interesting time for the cryptocurrency market.

This is largely down to the movements of Jupiter, a pretty pivotal and bullish indicator for Bitcoin, which will retrograde on the very same day as the Leo New Moon.

Positive Signs?

As we can see from the chart, this New Moon occurs pretty close to the Bitcoin Ascendant, which sits at around 7-8 degrees of Leo – a bullish sign in and of itself.

As we know, momentum is often catalysed or killed at important lunar phases such as new and full moon. So, if we are going to see a break-out, then it is usually going to start or end around new or full moon.

In addition to that, the Leo New Moon will be making a very upbeat trine to Jupiter, which is currently hovering close to the Bitcoin Aries Moon in the 9th house. Again, another bullish indicator associated with renewed hope, a return of bullish sentiment and positive international developments that could favour some form of a relief rally between the end of July and Oct-November 2022.

Not only that, but transiting Uranus is sitting slap bang on the Bitcoin Part of Fortune – a marker of wealth and good fortune that has come down to us from Arabic astrologers. Again, this does indicate a return of positive sentiment to the crypto market, one that is a bit more prolonged than the two-week waxing/waning lunar phases.

On the face of it, this all looks very positive, especially given the trine between luminaries and Jupiter. If nothing else, a good time to take a punt on a shorter term swing trade. At best, it could indicate a market structure change to the upside so it is definitely worth watching and waiting to see what happens.

Many people think the bottom of the current bear trend may be in for Bitcoin, which would fit with the fact that we are at the three-month mark since the last set of eclipses. This should hopefully mean that we are now exiting the shadow of that rather intense Scorpio Supermoon Eclipse and headed into the flowering of the six month orb of the April Solar Eclipse, which did look pretty rosy for Bitcoin.

Spanner in the works?

Again, a lot will ride on malefics, Mars Saturn and Uranus, which form a fixed grand cross with the nodes at this New Moon. This could throw a spanner in the works, creating uncertainty, which could result in more market jitters that upset the upside potential of the great Jupiterian vibes, much as we saw back in November 2021 when we had that final Saturn-Uranus square.

I do think it significant that the US Federal Reserve has just announced their intention to raise interest rates by 0.75 basis points. And certainly, if we look at when Bitcoin’s upward momentum really started to falter, it was back in November when the Fed’s tapering program got underway.

As a result, we saw Bitcoin and the US Dollar reverse mirror each other: the value of the Dollar going up in direct proportion to Bitcoin’s price tanking.

US Dollar Currency Index: 2021-present c/o Tradingview
Bitcoin chart for 2021-2 with both all-time highs. Notice how it starts to decline steadily and sharply from Nov 2021

Bitcoin & the US Dollar

I find it interesting that the US Dollar recently reached a 20-year high against most major world currencies in mid-July, perhaps due to global financial uncertainty, which often makes people return to tried and tested investments or conduct their business in ‘safer,’ denominations with less price action. Being the world’s reserve currency, this makes sense, especially given how volatile weaker currencies have been lately.

Chart for the US Dollar based on the Mint Act of 1792. There are many conflicting dates in the history of the US Dollar, so this chart may not be considered definitive.

I do think it fascinating that the Sun in the US Dollar chart is 13 degrees of Aries – very close to where transiting Jupiter is currently positioned – could the Dollar’s recent meteoric rise be attributed to Jupiter’s advance through Aries?

And conversely, could Jupiter’s retrograde spell also coincide with a reversal in this trend? If so, the next three months or so could indeed be exciting for Bitcoin, especially given that the Perpetual Contract for Bitcoin is usually measured using the BTC/USD pairing.

As I said in my six month solar eclipse forecast , I do think that there is a good chance that Bitcoin’s momentum could pick up in the third quarter of the year, resulting in a final flurry of optimism before a deeper recession finally sets in across all markets.

The signs are all there that one last burst is possible, if markets can overcome any jitters set in play by that rather ominous cardinal cross involving all three malefics: Mars, Saturn and Uranus, together with the nodes, which can point to herd mentality.

Mercury will also be opposing Saturn – not ideal as this is another planet associated with markets, commerce and exchanges. To me, this has all the hallmarks of unforeseen announcements and pessimistic warnings by traditional central banks like the Federal Reserve, which will dampen sentiment. Saturn can also make people fearful and extra cautious and so I expect this will favour traditional ‘safehaven’ type investments like stocks and bonds etc. This scarcity mentality may also work to the favour of commodities, which are currently experiencing a boom as a result of supply chain issues and inflation related to the Russia-Ukraine war, which is affecting things like grain exports and natural gas etc

With Uranus in the mix, and Mars close by, I expect we could see increased volatility, some of it swift and /or violent, particularly in tech stocks (Meta, Snap and Twitter’s unexpected earnings calls spring to mind here, although the social media sector as a whole is performing poorly due to falling ad revenues and a more difficult macro-economic environment); as well as any commodity ruled by these planets, such as iron, lead and metals associated with nuclear power processes like uranium.

Which influence will win out remains to be seen. Personally, I am plumping for a breakout rally which could slowly trend towards the upside between now and October, depending on other supporting factors.

However, trade volumes will be key – it is the summer holiday season in the northern hemisphere, so lots of people won’t be trading. Plus, there is so much uncertainty in the market that if equities are not able to sustain their relief rallies post the Fed’s somewhat more dovish announcement, then the cryptocurrency market is likely to follow.

If nothing else, though, I think we are in for an interesting ride…

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.